Expert opinion survey Phase 1 V2

General update: I realized the comments setting were preventing people without google IDs from leaving comments. This is corrected. Now you can select "anonymous" and leave a comment (but sign it within the comment please).

On this questionnaire, I think I have addressed Mark's concerns here, and have brought the question more in line with the guiding questions accompanying the old draft of Steve's Threshold Attribute table. He has a new draft which I'll post when I receive it.

Remember this questionnaire is to make sure we have a reasonable model. Phase 2 will be about estimating critical thresholds, and will be focused on the key management-oriented transitions. So so more stuff from the threshold attribute table will show up there rather than here. This 2 step process is reasonable to me because, a repondent may identify a new threshold in phase 1. The other respondents cannot comment on it, becasue they don't know the suggestions of other people. So we need to incorporate the suggestions into a new model, and then ask people to talk about trnasitons from the new model. make sense?

Steve, I especially would value your thoughts about whether this questionnaire lines up with your vision.



Background:
State-and-transition models are an increasingly common conceptual method of organizing knowledge of successional dynamics in ecosystems. Unlike older successional theories they allow for multiple successional pathways, do not assume a single “climax” and do not assume that successional change is reversible. They assume that a given ecosystem might be capable of shifting among multiple stable states, when a specific “trigger” leads to a transition. The model seeks to identify the primary stable states, and key phases within those states, and the transitions among them. States and phases are defined by structural properties such as dominant plants and other biota or biodiversity, and functional properties/processes such as frequent fire return intervals or high soil aggregate stability. The properties of states and phases may be dynamic (e.g. plant cover & community composition) or inherent (e.g. climate, soil properties, landscape physiography), and may confer resistance (the ability to maintain the same set of structural/functional properties, i.e. not change) or resilience (the ability to experience change but return to the original set of structural/functional properties) to ecosystem change. (examples: 1) a dynamic property conferring resistance might be biological crust cover which decreases erodibility, 2) an inherent property conferring resistance might be high rock cover which prevents various soil disturbances from resulting in erosion, 3) a dynamic property conferring resilience might be rhizomatous grass cover: grazing animals remove biomass, and removal of the grazers when the forage quantity becomes poor results in a recovery of biomass due to resprout from tillers, 4) an inherent property conferring resilience might be a climate which favors a wet season after the grazing season, and facilitates recovery. Phases within states are different varieties of a state, and transition from one phase to another tend to be fairly common, easily triggered, and often reversible. Less degraded states tend to be characterized by negative feedbacks which confer resilience. In contrast, transitions among stable states, may be abrubt, and may be irreversible because of mechanisms which maintain the ecosystem in that state. Every transition has an underlying trigger, for example introduction of grazing. The trigger initiates a change in structural or functional properties of the ecosystem (e.g. loss of vegetative cover, and disruption of soil surface aggregates), which may engage new processes which bring about a transition to a new state (e.g. a positive feedback loop wherein lack of vegetation and soil aggregates leads to erosion which prevents the recolonization of vegetation or creation of aggregates). Such positive feedbacks which led to a transition can also maintain degraded states.


The best way to understand a state-and transition model is to study one. Please review the following model and answer the questionnaire below it. Questions marked *** are required, we cannot use your response if any of these are omitted. The other responses are optional, and much appreciated.

[insert model here]

***1) Please identify any states or phases which should be omitted from the state-and-transition model.
Multiple choice, e.g…..
a. P1
b. P2
c. S1
d. S1P1
e. S1P2
f. S2
g. S3
h. None, all should be retained

2) Please identify any states or phases which are currently not in the model, but should be added to the state and transition model.
[Please briefly list structural properties like dominant species or overall vegetative cover (whatever you feel is important to mention), and functional properties & processes such as fire return intervals, or low soil stability. When you list properties please think about and indicate if they are dynamic or inherent, and if they contribute to the resistance or resilience of the state or phase. Please indicate any feedback mechanisms which tend to maintain these states. Let us know about appropriate literature if available.]

***3) Please identify any transitions which should be omitted from the state-and-transition model.

a. T1
b. T2
c. T3
d. T4
e. T5
f. T6
g. T7
h. T8
i. T9
j. None, all should be retained

3) Please identify any transitions which are currently not in the model but should be added to the state and transition model.
[For each addition provide, the starting state and ending state for which the transition applies. Identify plausible trigger mechanisms. Also please provide a brief explanation of the process that brings about the transition, e.g. fire, insect outbreak, drought, grazing. If reasonable touch upon the dominant scale of the trigger mechanism, and the importance of temporal convergence and order with other mechanisms (e.g. simultaneous drought and grazing may function as a trigger when either alone do not).]


***5)Please estimate your overall confidence that a new revised model which takes into account your proposed modifications is the correct model of the most important ecosystem states, processes and dynamics of the ecosite in question.

[Please answer on a subjective scale of 0 – 100% certainty. Enter any value in this range. To help you answer: 0% means “It’s anyone’s guess, this model is no better than any other model”, 50% means “Because this model is reasonable I would tend to believe it until evidence to the contrary is presented”, 100% means “The model is so well-supported by evidence and accumulated knowledge, that I am certain it is correct.”]

6)If your level of confidence in any particular state or transition differs from the value above please estimate your confidence for that model component in the appropriate box. In case you are estimating a confidence in a state or transition suggested by you in questions 2 and 4, please use the “other” boxes to identify it.

[If you do not provide answers to 6 we will assume they are the same as the answers to 5 in all cases.]


a. P1
b. P2
c. S1
d. S1P1
e. S1P2
f. S2
g. S3
h. other state or phase
i. other state of phase
k. T1
l. T2
m. T3
n. T4
o. T5
p. T6
q. T7
r. T8
s. T9
t. other transition
u. other transition


***7)Please take a moment to think of any scientist or other person, who is to your knowledge the best qualified to develop a state-and-transition model for this ecosite. This person could be yourself, or any other person. “Best” qualified may or may not mean highly qualified; sometimes no one is highly qualified. Now, in the hypothetical scenario that this person had prepared a state-and-transition model for this ecosite using all of the data, knowledge and experience available to them, estimate how much confidence you would have that it is the correct model of the most important ecosystem states, processes and dynamics of the ecosite in question.

[Please answer on a subjective scale of 0 – 100% certainty. Enter any value in this range. To help you answer: 0% means “It’s anyone’s guess, any person could produce an equally good or bad model”, 50% means “Because this model is reasonable I would tend to believe it until evidence to the contrary is presented”, 100% means “The model is so well-supported by evidence and accumulated knowledge, that I am certain it is correct.]

8.) Who is the best qualified person (from question 7) to develop this state-and transition model? This response will help us ensure we have contacted all of the right people.

9.) How much time did you spend on this? This is important for improving future iterations of this questionnaire.

10.) How would you improve this survey?

Thank you for taking time out of your schedule. We will use your comments to revise our model, and will contact you again about phase 2 of the survey.